Pausing to wipe away tears with a handkerchief, South
Korea’s president, Lee Myung-bak, vowed Monday to respond “resolutely and
unwaveringly” to last month’s deadly sinking of a South Korean warship in disputed waters near North Korea.
But South Korean political experts and politicians said there was little their country could actually do if investigators find the North was responsible for the March 26 explosion, which left 46 sailors dead or missing. South Korean salvage cranes are still trying to raise the front half of the 1,200-ton Cheonan, which was torn in two by the blast during a routine patrol.
“I promise you that as president, I will uncover the cause of the Cheonan’s sinking down to the very last detail,” Mr. Lee, who came to office promising a tougher line against the North, said in a 10-minute televised speech.
During the broadcast, Mr. Lee grew tearful as he read the names of the dead and
missing. However, he never mentioned North Korea by name, following the cautious stance of his government in avoiding placing blame on the North until an inquiry of the mysterious blast was completed.
On Saturday, state-run media in North Korea broke three weeks of silence about the sinking to deny that their country was involved. However, with investigators already concluding that the explosion came from outside the Cheonan’s hull, the consensus view in Seoul is that the ship was attacked by either a mine or a torpedo from a North Korean submarine.
The ship went down in Yellow Sea waters where the two Koreas have had bloody
naval clashes three times since 1999.
The question now preoccupying South Korean media and North Korea watchers is
what their country can do in response if it turns out the North was behind the attack.
The answer seems to be precious little, say political experts and politicians. They say economic sanctions will have limited effect on the already isolated North, and the South will likely balk at an outright military confrontation.
“If evidence makes it clear that North Korea was involved, we would fall into an
extremely difficult dilemma, both militarily and non-militarily,” Kim Jong-soo, a
former defense minister, told reporters.
Even a minor rise in tensions would most likely spook investors and consumers,
undermining the $800 billion South Korean economy. Still, Mr. Lee is already facing pressure from within his own conservative Grand National Party to retaliate.
Over the weekend, the foreign minister, Yu Myung-hwan, said South Korea might ask the United Nations Security Council for new sanctions against the North. There has also been talk of shutting down a South Korean-run industrial complex near the North Korean city of Kaesong, which has been a source of hard currency for the North.
With few options for punishing the North, political experts say Mr. Lee may end up stalling for time. Investigators from the United States, Sweden and other nations are examining the rear half of the Cheonan, which was recovered last week. While the front half is expected to be raised by the end of this week, a final decision on the North’s involvement may take weeks, or even months, political experts said.
“Revenge will inevitably lead to bad results,” said Andrei Lankov, a professor at
Kookmin University in Seoul. “Lee Myung-bak is trying to buy time, to let things cool down.”
For now, the South Korean public seems to be showing more sorrow than anger over the suspected attack. South Koreans said they were shocked by the loss of life, but did not want war.
“We need to be patient and continue engaging North Korea,” said Hong Jin-ki, 42, a computer programmer in Seoul. “If we take measures, then both South Korea and North Korea will suffer.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/20/world/asia/20korea.html?sq=kaesong&st=cse&scp=3&pagewanted=print
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/20/world/asia/20korea.html?sq=kaesong&st=cse&scp=3&pagewanted=print
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